Evaluation Report: Endline Survey – The Traceable Organic Coffee from Kenya Project

Overview

This endline evaluation covers TRACE Kenya, a five-year project (2020–2025, extended to March 2025) implemented by Solidaridad Eastern and Central Africa with African Coffee Roasters (ACR) and funded by Danida Market Development Partnerships (DMDP), with a grant of DKK 14.96 million. The project aimed to build an inclusive, traceable, certified organic coffee value chain for more than 15,000 smallholder farmers (at least 30% women and 10% youth) in 14 cooperatives in Bungoma, Kericho and Nandi counties. Its work covered training, certification, nurseries, carbon farming and market linkage. The evaluation was a final accountability and learning exercise for future programming and DMDP reporting.

Key findings

• 25,301 farmers were trained (168.7% of the 15,000 target) and 481 ToTs were trained (37% women, 29% youth); training participants included 5,789 women (25.5%) and 4,834 youth (21.3%), although other sections of the report describe women's participation as over 30% or over 40%.
• Average yield rose from 1.73 kg of cherry per tree at baseline to 3.73 kg/tree at endline (115%), based on self-reported household data (DMDP monitoring recorded 4.21 kg/tree in 2023); cooperative production grew from 5,736 MT to 6,517 MT.
• Average household coffee income rose from KES 34,293 to KES 66,893 (95%) and the average cherry price from KES 57/kg to KES 81/kg (42%); 90% of surveyed farmers reported income gains.
• 12,674 farmers in 7 of the 14 cooperatives were certified under Rainforest Alliance (3,753.63 MT certified), and 2,521 farmers achieved organic certification (135,934 kg organic coffee). However, 0 MT of organic coffee was sold under certified channels: 13,293 kg was prepared and 21,700 kg was ready for export, but withdrawal of the CMS Eldoret milling licence (September 2024) disrupted processing.
• 20 nurseries were established against a target of 12, raising over 2 million coffee and shade-tree seedlings and generating KES 13.9 million (~DKK 616,433) from seedling sales.
• 9,820 farmers were enrolled on Rabobank's ACORN carbon platform, generating 1,327 tCO₂ credits and DKK 296,776 in disbursed revenue; 25% of men but only 13% of women earned in the first auction.
• The report records 1,008 jobs created or supported (798 new, 210 maintained) against a target of 200, although it cites 317 jobs elsewhere; 166 of 410 household respondents (106 men, 60 women) said they do not share coffee benefits with spouse or children.

In figures

Recommendations

• Provide post-project technical backstopping (e.g. seasonal clinics or virtual advisory services) on certification, pest and disease management and climate-smart practices.
• Strengthen organic input and seedling systems through cooperative-led input hubs and local enterprises producing bio-fertilisers, bio-pesticides and certified seedlings.
• Diversify markets beyond ACR through trade fairs and buyer forums, and negotiate affordable certification renewal fees collectively.
• National and county governments should integrate organic coffee into agricultural policies, budgets and extension, and fast-track a national organic agriculture policy with contamination thresholds and group certification rules.
• Private buyers should offer multi-year off-take agreements and co-finance carbon market onboarding, verification and transaction costs.
• Deepen youth and women's economic empowerment through support for youth-led enterprises, mentorship for women's cooperative leadership, and dedicated grants or revolving funds.
• Set up a permanent multi-stakeholder learning platform and consolidate lessons into a scalable model for county and regional expansion.

Lessons learned

• Intervening across production, certification and marketing at the same time helped turn productivity gains into market rewards and increased farmer buy-in.
• Organic transition requires patience, continuous support and policy clarity; government subsidies for synthetic fertilisers sent conflicting signals to farmers.
• Youth and women's inclusion needed intentional targeting, such as flexible on-farm training schedules and role models, yet norms and lack of land titles still limited decision-making.
• Weak supply of organic-certified inputs undermined gains, so future projects should strengthen input systems early in implementation.
• Market incentives drive adoption of traceability and compliance only while buyer trust is maintained; any disruption in buyer relations could quickly reverse gains.

Methodology

The evaluation used a mixed-methods, pre-test/post-test (baseline–endline) design without a control group, following OECD-DAC criteria. It combined a household survey of 428 farmers (stratified random sample across 12 cooperatives in the three counties, 95% confidence, ±5% margin), six FGDs, at least 15 KIIs, document review and site observation, and preliminary findings were validated at a stakeholder workshop.

Limitations

• With no control group, observed changes cannot be attributed solely to the project.
• Self-reported data on income, yields and practice adoption are subject to recall and social desirability bias.
• Climate variability, coffee price fluctuations and wider economic conditions may have influenced outcomes independently of the project.
• Some indicators lacked baseline measurements, so some comparisons relied on recall, proxies or qualitative evidence.
• The endline yield figure from household self-reports differs from DMDP monitoring data, likely because of different data collection methods and time reference.