Climate Resilience
Farmers are almost universally aware of climate change and drought is the top shock, but support to adapt is thin: few use irrigation or receive disaster assistance, and endline evidence on resilience outcomes is limited to practice adoption and early carbon payments.
Key evidence
- In CROSL (Ethiopia), 79.8% of households were aware of climate change, but only 6.8% used irrigation and 26% had received assistance for natural disaster impacts. CROSL · Baseline · 2028
- All Climate Heroes respondents in Kenya and Uganda were aware of climate change, with prolonged drought the top problem; 95% of SAVE farmers reported drought cycles as the main climate event. Dream Fund · BaselineSAVE · Baseline
- In the Acting Now Kenya baseline, 49% of crop responses reported lower yields than the year before, mainly because of drought, pests and diseases, and lack of inputs. AN · Baseline · 2025
- OCDDP households using organic fertiliser rose from 60.8% to 89% and pesticide use on coffee fell from 7% to 0%; FOSEK reported shade-tree use in Ethiopia rising from 38% to 65%. OCDDP · Endline · 2021FOSEK · Endline · 2021
- Adoption of costlier practices stayed low: 25% adoption of energy-saving technology among trained Kenyan coffee farmers, and 12.5% conservation agriculture and 9.4% irrigation among H4G farmers. PFC · Endline · 2022Horticulture for Growth (H4G) – Promoting Horticulture Enterprise Development in Kenya · Endline
- TRACE enrolled 9,820 farmers on Rabobank's ACORN carbon platform, generating 1,327 tCO₂ credits and DKK 296,776 in payments; in Climate Heroes, 83% of Ugandan and 67% of Kenyan respondents were not in carbon trading. TRACE Kenya · Endline · 2025Dream Fund · Baseline
- Bottom Up's low-cost, eco-friendly IPM method is now replicated across Ethiopia; LISEC's waste-to-product machines were delivered but not yet installed at evaluation. Bottom Up · Endline · 2023LISEC · Endline · 2024
- In Kalangala, 82% of oil palm growers' farmland is under oil palm and buffer zones have been encroached. NOPP · Baseline
In figures
Aware of climate change
Aware of climate change
79.8 % of households
79.879.8 % of households
Trained in climate-smart agriculture
Trained in climate-smart agriculture
26.6 % of households
26.626.6 % of households
Received assistance for disaster impacts
Received assistance for disaster impacts
26 % of households
2626 % of households
Use irrigation technologies
Use irrigation technologies
6.8 % of households
6.86.8 % of households
CROSL · Baseline · 2028
Data table
| Item | % of households |
|---|---|
| Aware of climate change | 79.8 |
| Trained in climate-smart agriculture | 26.6 |
| Received assistance for disaster impacts | 26 |
| Use irrigation technologies | 6.8 |
Earlier measurement Later measurement
Organic fertiliser on coffee, OCDDP Ethiopia
Organic fertiliser on coffee, OCDDP Ethiopia
Baseline: 60.8 → Endline 2021: 89 % of households
60.8 → 89Baseline: 60.8 → Endline 2021: 89 % of households
Shade trees on coffee, FOSEK Ethiopia
Shade trees on coffee, FOSEK Ethiopia
2014: 38 → 2020: 65 % of households
38 → 652014: 38 → 2020: 65 % of households
OCDDP · Endline · 2021FOSEK · Endline · 2021
Data table
| Item | Earlier | Later |
|---|---|---|
| Organic fertiliser on coffee, OCDDP Ethiopia | 60.8 (Baseline) | 89 (Endline 2021) |
| Shade trees on coffee, FOSEK Ethiopia | 38 (2014) | 65 (2020) |
Change over time
LISEC (tannery waste management) Ethiopia
- Midline 2022Efficiency rated unsatisfactory; Solidaridad's tannery work was significantly delayed.
- Endline 2024Six waste-to-product machines delivered but installation incomplete; only 58% of MSMEs met sustainability conditions.
What works
- Aggregating smallholders makes carbon payments possible; individual farms of about 0.5 ha are far below the roughly 10 ha needed. Dream Fund · BaselineTRACE Kenya · Endline · 2025
- Tree crops that fit traditional coffee systems were adopted more readily than technologies outside existing systems. FOSEK · Endline · 2021
- A low-cost IPM method spread nationally once proven. Bottom Up · Endline · 2023
What holds results back
- High cost limits adoption of energy-saving stoves and biogas units without grants. PFC · Endline · 2022
- Climate-smart practices are labour-intensive, so farmers apply them only on small areas (about 1.4–1.75 acres). C&B · Baseline
- Low agroforestry knowledge: 78% of SAVE farmers reported little knowledge, although 96% were willing to plant more trees. SAVE · Baseline
- Weak enforcement of environmental rules, and equipment procurement delays, held back environmental results. NOPP · BaselineLISEC · Endline · 2024
Recommendations for programming
- Group farmers into associations large enough to benefit from carbon trading, and expand carbon-trade training at cooperative level. Dream Fund · Baseline
- Deploy digital weather and climate-smart advisory services and early warning. CROSL · Baseline · 2028PFC · Endline · 2022
- Invest in water storage, irrigation and year-round fodder and water systems. CROSL · Baseline · 2028Horticulture for Growth (H4G) – Promoting Horticulture Enterprise Development in Kenya · EndlinePromotion of Sustainable Beef Production through Development of Field to Fork Value Chain Approach · Endline · 2015
- Link farmers to suitable tree seedlings and train them on agroforestry design and management. SAVE · BaselineDream Fund · Baseline
- Reward adoption of climate-smart practices through carbon credits and certification. RS! · Thematic studyP2P · Baseline
Evidence gaps & caveats
- No study measures resilience outcomes (for example recovery after shocks) consistently; most endlines report practice adoption only.
- Tree survival and long-term sequestration are not yet measured.
- Most climate evidence comes from recent baselines (CROSL, SAVE, Climate Heroes, Acting Now) whose endlines are still to come.
Source studies (17)
- National Oil Palm Project Baseline Study Report (Phase I: Kalangala, Buvuma and Mayuge Hubs)Uganda · Baseline
- Shade 4 Vegetables (SAVE) Project Baseline ReportKenya · Baseline
- Baseline Assessment for Climate Victims to Climate Heroes ProjectRegional (ECA) · Baseline
- Mid-term Evaluation Report for LISEC-Green: An OECD-DAC Evaluation of the Leather Initiative for Sustainable Employment and Job Creation (LISEC) Green Jobs ProjectEthiopia · Midline
- Baseline Study on Certification and Beyond: Market Access for Sustainable Coffee, Horticulture and Tea from Tanzania (Final Report - Tanzania Mainland and Zanzibar)Tanzania · Baseline
- Horticulture for Growth (H4G) Project Promoting Horticulture Enterprise Development in Kenya: Endline Evaluation ReportKenya · Endline
- Fair Value Distribution Analysis in the Coffee Sector: A Research to Advocate for Policy Changes in Kenya and UgandaRegional (ECA) · Thematic study
- Baseline Assessment for the Coffee Project under the Pathways to Prosperity Program Tanzania: Final Baseline ReportTanzania · Baseline
- Baseline Evaluation for Climate Resilient Opportunities for Sustainable Livelihoods Project in Minjar Shenkora District, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia (July 2025 - June 2028)Ethiopia · Baseline · Jul 2025 – Jun 2028
- Acting Now for Food Security and Resilient Food Systems: Kenya Baseline ReportKenya · Baseline · Jan 2023 – Dec 2025
- Evaluation Report: Endline Survey – The Traceable Organic Coffee from Kenya ProjectKenya · Endline · Jan 2020 – Mar 2025
- Final Evaluation for the Leather Initiative for Sustainable Employment Creation (LISEC) in Oromia Regional State, East Shewa Zone, Modjo Town, EthiopiaEthiopia · Endline · Jan 2021 – Apr 2024
- End-term Evaluation of Bottom Up Project in EthiopiaEthiopia · Endline · Apr 2019 – Mar 2023
- Evaluation Report: Scaling Investment for the Resilience of East Africa Coffee Producers Program (Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda)Regional (ECA) · Endline · Jan 2018 – Dec 2022
- FOSEK End-line Evaluation Final Report 2021Regional (ECA) · Endline · Sept 2013 – Dec 2021
- Oromia Coffee and Dairy Development Project (OCDDP): Final Report, End-line Evaluation StudyEthiopia · Endline · Jul 2016 – Apr 2021
- The Promotion of Sustainable Beef Production through Development of Field to Fork Value Chain Approach in Kenya: End of Project Evaluation ReportKenya · Endline · Jan 2014 – Dec 2015